PNAC Video

The above link is a very well-done ad (or possibly PSA) against the Bush foreign policy and the Project for a New American Century. I really dig the graphics, and I think the final words are very effective and chilling.

47-state exit poll data

The Scoop (a New Zealand site) has put together some unadjusted exit poll data for 47 states. They divide the data between "critical" and "non-critical" states. When compared against final tallies, the non-critical states show an average "red-shift" of 1.4%, while the critical states have an average red-shift of 2.5%. They also note that the exit poll sample size in critical states is twice as large as in non-critical states. The margin of error is therefore much smaller in the critical states, making the shift considerably more improbable in those states. While most people have noted that the magnitude of the shift is improbably, many have missed that it is also highly improbable for so many states to lean the same way. If the shifts were do to random error, then the direction of the shift (i.e. toward Bush or toward Kerry) should behave like a coin toss. 10 of the 47 states showed error in Kerry's direction. The probability of this happening is less than on in 27 thousand (3.68e-5 to be exact). There is thus more than one axis on which this election appears mysterious.