John Carpenter's New Orleans

I'm writing today from Australia. I was here exactly four years ago in September, 2001. Like last time, all the national newspapers are focusing on a major American disaster, this time New Orleans. The new articles and photo-essays of American tragedy will make an eerie addition to my collection of Australian newspapers published Sept. 11, 2001.

The current tragedy, though, is very different from Sept. 11. It is an unfortunate event and a true disaster, but it was completely predicted in all of its details. The potential for catastrophic post-hurricane flooding in New Orleans has been known for many years. In addition to the long-standing awareness of the risks, the disaster potential was repeatedly emphasized on all national news outlets for several days prior to the hurricane. I've seen numerous on-the-street interviews with flood survivors, and almost all of them admitted that they heard the warnings but didn't believe them.

So how much sympathy should I really feel? This is nothing to compare with a south-Asian tsunami or a Sudanese civil war. This wasn't even an "out-of-the-blue" natural disaster that took people unawares. The unfolding and loss of life in New Orleans could have been almost completely avoided if anyone -- the citizens, city officials, the National Guard, the President, etc -- if anyone had chosen to pay attention to the risks and prepare appropriately.

I also have no sympathy for Bush or for those who planned and are orchestrating the relief effort. Bush said yesterday, "No one could have predicted the levies would break." This is a rare and brazen level of even for the President. I watch about 15 minutes of news per day, and even I heard numerous predictions, in advance, that the levies might break. Everyone predicted that the levies could break!

Consider New Orleans a dress rehearsal for the real natural disasters that the US will eventually, inevitably face. Nature has been nice to us in the short history of our country. But sooner or later the statistics will catch up to us and we will have to face an unforseen catastrophe on a much greater scale. Judging from our performance in the utterly-predictable events in New Orleans, I think we can safely expect that the US will be completely wiped out when a real catastrophe comes our way.

I propose that the Hurricane Katrina aftermath be subtitled "The Power of Positive Thinking." The magnitude of suffering is truly a consequence of lazy optimism: "Those levies ain't gonna break;" "That storm ain't gonna be so bad;" "The flooding won't be severe;" "We won't have any trouble trucking in supplies from distant sources;" etc etc.

Also interesting is the speed with which this hurricane/flood affected economies around the globe. Flood hits new Orleans -> gas prices go up everywhere and much of the southeast is completely without gas for a while -> disruption in transportation -> scarcity of basic resources.... If we can't prepare for disruptions in global transportation, then when a big disaster hits we may see much bigger ramifications.